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Five straight days of Yellow Alert on the Mindanao Grid, followed by additional Red and Yellow Alert periods in September, are raising concerns that the region’s power reserves are again coming under pressure as electricity demand grows.
The Davao Consumer Movement (DCM) said the series of grid alerts should serve as a warning to the national government and power-sector regulators to accelerate efforts to bring new generation capacity online before declining reserves develop into a wider supply shortage.
The group questioned whether Mindanao could be heading toward a repeat of the power crisis that triggered widespread interruptions and rotational brownouts from 2013 to 2015.
“Is Mindanao once again heading toward a power crisis similar to what it experienced from 2013 to 2015?” the DCM asked in a statement.
Tightening Supply
The Mindanao Grid was placed under Yellow Alert on five consecutive days from Aug. 10 to 14, according to the consumer group. On Aug. 10, the grid also went under Red Alert for several hours, indicating that available generation was insufficient to meet demand and the transmission system’s regulating requirement.
The DCM said available Department of Energy (DOE) and National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) records showed no documented Red Alert on the Mindanao Grid from 2019 until Aug. 10, 2026.
The situation worsened again on Sept. 2, when the grid entered Red and Yellow Alert periods after available generation fell below projected peak demand. NGCP attributed the alerts to the unavailability of major coal-fired plants, rising demand and lower available generation.
The grid was under Yellow Alert from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. to 8 p.m., while Red Alert periods were declared from noon to 1 p.m., 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. to 9 p.m.
NGCP cited the unavailability of GNPower Kauswagan Units 1 and 2 and Therma South Inc. Unit 2. The Sept. 2 alerts were lifted after their scheduled periods but resumed on Sept. 3, underscoring the grid’s vulnerability to plant outages and demand increases.
Earlier Warnings
For the DCM, the recent incidents are not isolated events but evidence that Mindanao’s once-comfortable power reserves are being eroded.
Government agencies have previously projected that electricity demand would outpace the expansion of generation capacity unless new projects were developed.
In 2021, the Mindanao Development Authority (MinDA) estimated that the region would need about 3,500 megawatts (MW) of additional capacity by 2030, based on projected annual demand growth of around 7 percent.
By 2024, MinDA warned that Mindanao could face a power shortage within three to five years if new power producers did not enter the market. Around the same period, the DOE-Mindanao Field Office said existing supply could remain adequate for only about three more years without additional generation capacity.
The issue was again raised in January 2026, when MinDA and the DOE met to strengthen coordination on the region’s future electricity requirements.
The agencies discussed the need to secure sufficient firm baseload capacity while accelerating renewable energy development, including solar and battery energy storage systems. The anticipated expansion of mining and other energy-intensive industries was also identified as a potential source of additional demand.
Capacity Needed Before Shortage
The DCM said the government should act before reserves reach critically low levels, rather than wait for an actual supply shortage.
It urged MinDA, the DOE, local governments and private investors to speed up the development of generation projects, noting that power facilities can take years to pass through planning, permitting, construction and commercial operation.
The group also linked the issue to Mindanao’s economic prospects, saying reliable electricity would be essential to support investments, mining and other industries expected to drive regional growth.
For the DCM, the experience of the 2013-2015 crisis provides a clear lesson: generation capacity and reserves must be secured before supply becomes critical.
The group warned that if demand continues to grow faster than new capacity comes online, Mindanawons could once again face prolonged rotational brownouts.
Source:
https://www.mindanaotimes.com.ph/dcm-is-mindanao-headed-toward-another-power-crisis/
https://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/power-crisis-looms-in-mindanao-2
